Bitcoin (BTC) stayed near $19,000 at the Jan. 13 Wall Street open as traders hoped a week of swift gains would stick.
BTC price âbreakout or fakeout remains to be seenâ
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD crisscrossing the $19,000 mark as United States equities began trading.
The pair rapidly took out sell-side liquidity overnight, gapping higher to what on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators forecast could be a retest of the $20,000 mark.
âSeems like BTC is setting up for a retest of resistance at the 2017 Top,â it wrote in part of a Twitter discussion on Jan. 12, the day prior.
âWhether we see a bonafide breakout or fakeout remains to be seen. Time for patience and discipline.â
An accompanying snapshot of the Binance order book confirmed bulls had broken through multiple sell walls.
âThings just got interesting,â Material Indicators added in comments on the chart.
Characteristic of the current climate, others remained firmly risk-off on Bitcoin despite year-to-date gains approaching 20%.
Among them was popular trader Il Capo of Crypto, who in classic style described current price action as âone of the biggest bull traps Iâve ever seen.â
âBullish euphoria is real, and price is still below 20k,â he added.
MichaÃ«l van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, likewise cautioned on overly optimistic reactions to BTC price performance.
âFunny though, if you look at social media, itâs bull euphoria. If you watch the chart, you have to zoom out a lot to see the entire chart,â he said.
âBitcoin is still -$50,000 from 15 months ago.â
Bitcoin awakens from âvolatility slumberâ
Regardless of its staying power, Bitcoinâs recent surge higher contrasts strongly with the distinct absence of volatility witnessed since the FTX implosion in early November.
Related:Â Bitcoin gained 300% in year before last halving â Is 2023 different?
For on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, such behavior was arguably due to a shake-up sooner rather than later, especially given its persistence through the 2022 yearly candle close.
âThe 2022-23 holiday period has been historically quiet, and it is rare for such conditions to stick around for long,â it wrote in the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, âThe Week On-Chain,â issuedÂ on Jan. 9.
âPast occasions where BTC and ETH volatility was this low have preceded extremely volatile market environments, with past examples trading both higher and lower.â
Calling the phenomenon a âvolatility slumber,â Glassnode added that âon-chain activity for the two majors remains extremely weak, despite a short-term bump following FTX.â
âUsing both on-chain activity, and realized cap drawdowns, it is safe to say that the excesses of H2-2021 has been largely expelled from the system,â it concluded.
âThis process has been painful for investors, however has brought market valuations closer to their underlying fundamentals.â
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